Indicators

CC1: Climate trends

Climate change is having a significant impact on the ACT, with clear evidence of a warming climate and increased occurrence of heat days. Rainfall is variable, but most recent years have been drier than average. Projections suggest a worsening climate with hotter temperatures and decreased rainfall.

CC2: Impacts of climate change

Climate is impacting on the ACT’s community, economy and the natural environment. Observed changes include reduced inflows to water storages, increased tree mortality, greater fire danger, and more algal blooms in Canberra’s lakes.

CC3: Greenhouse gas emissions

By 2020, emissions from electricity generation will fall to zero and the ACT will meet the legislated target for total emissions. Transport will contribute over 60% of ACT’s emissions after 2020 and will become the main focus for future reductions. However, transport emissions increased by 13% between 2012–13 and 2017–18 and will represent a significant challenge in the future. The phasing out of natural gas will also be important. Per capita greenhouse gas emissions were just over 8 tonnes in 2017–18, a decrease of around 24% from 2012–13.

HS1: ACT’s ecological footprint

HS2: energy consumption and generation

HS3: Solid waste generation and management

HS4: Transport

HS5: Water resources

HS6: Water consumption

The ACT and Queanbeyan’s total water consumption has remained fairly consistent since 2012–13 at around 50,000 megalitres annually despite population growth. Between 2001–02 and 2017–18, residential per capita water use dropped from 124 kilolitres per year to 78 kilolitres litres per year, a decrease of around 37%. Residential supply is responsible for most of the water use in the ACT, accounting for around 60% of the total supplied annually.

A1: Compliance with air quality standards

With the exception of particulate matter (PM_2.5) air quality levels were compliant with the with National Environment Protection (Ambient Air Quality) Measure standards. PM_2.5 remains a concern for the Tuggeranong Valley, particularly given the current consensus that there is no safe concentration of particles for sensitive people. Smoke from wood heaters is the main cause of PM_2.5 exceedances in the ACT.

A2: Health impacts of air pollution

There is currently no data available on the impacts of air pollution on human health in the ACT, nor the associated costs to the health system and the economy. Current expert and research consensus suggests that air pollution, even at concentrations below the current air quality standards, is associated with adverse health effects.

A3: emissions of major air pollutants

Data on the sources and emissions of diffuse source air pollution, which make up the majority of emissions in the ACT, has not been updated since 1999. In the absence of current data it is not possible to assess changes in air pollution emissions over the reporting period. The ACT’s annual monitoring and reporting activities for point source (industry) emissions complied with the National Environment Protection National Pollutant Inventory Measure over the reporting period.

A4: Amenity

Over the 2017–18 and 2018–19 periods, the EPA received 5,562 environmental complaints. Concerns about noise were responsible for 80% of all complaints and is clearly a significant issue for the ACT community. Amplified noise was the source of most noise complaints. Air pollution received the second highest number of complaints (13%), with smoke the source of most complaints. With only 2 years of data available, it is not possible to assess trends over the reporting period.

L1: Land use change

Over the reporting period, it was not possible to determine changes in the area of urban and rural lands. However, any changes are estimated to be small. Although nearly 75% of ACT Government land is zoned for natural ecosystems and greenspace, urban expansion continues to be an environmental challenge for the ACT. To minimise urban growth, the proportion of medium and high-density housing is increasing. The rates of infill development are improving with all years from 2015–16 meeting (or close to meeting) the 70% infill target.

L2: Land health

There is a general lack of knowledge about land health in the ACT, both for long-term changes and current conditions. This lack of information does not enable an assessment of land and soil health and remains a critical gap in our understanding of environmental condition.

B1: Threatened species and ecological communities

As at 2019, there were 7 critically endangered species, 18 endangered species, 26 vulnerable species and one regionally conservation dependent species in the ACT. Over the reporting period (2015–16 to 2018–19), 17 additional species were listed as threatened and 7 species were transferred to critically endangered to align with their Commonwealth status. There are 3 ecological communities classed as endangered, with High Country Bogs and Associated Fens added during the reporting period. In addition, ‘the loss of mature native trees (including hollow-bearing trees) and a lack of recruitment’ was listed as a key threatening process. While changes in listings do not necessarily represent a decline, it is clear that the future of some species and communities in the ACT are threatened without management intervention.

B2a: Extent of conservation areas

Extent: Conservation areas protect 60% of the total ACT area and continue to increase as environmental offsets are added to the Canberra Nature Park network.

B2b: Condition of conservation areas

Condition: At the time of reporting, it was not possible to determine the condition of conservation areas in the ACT. It is also not currently possible to assess whether offsets have ensured no net loss of biodiversity as a result of land development. However, assessments for offsets will likely take many years. Recently initiated monitoring programs will greatly improve condition knowledge in the future.

B3: Representation of threatened species and ecological communities in conservation areas

While many of the ACT’s threatened species and ecological communities are well represented in conservation areas, some flora and fauna species and ecological communities remain poorly represented. This is particularly the case for Natural Temperate Grassland and Yellow Box/Red Gum Grassy Woodland. For species with large proportions of non-reserved habitat, this is due to their dependence on grassland and woodland habitats, which are not as well protected in conservation areas as other ecosystems (such as forests).

B4a: Extent of native vegetation

Extent: Due to the large area of conservation reserves, the ACT has extensive areas of native vegetation. Any recent native vegetation losses are estimated to be small and mainly due to changes in land use from urban development. There have also been substantial revegetation efforts to restore habitat and connectivity.

B4b: Condition of native vegetation

Condition: It was not possible to determine an overall assessment of vegetation condition for the ACT, or changes over the reporting period (2015–16 to 2018–19). Available condition assessments show an increased occurrence of dieback in the ACT, large areas of poor riparian connectivity, much vegetation outside tolerable fire intervals and vegetation dominated by early and young growth stages. However, woodlands, Natural Temperate Grasslands and secondary grasslands have shown an increase in native plant species richness suggesting an improvement in condition.

B5: Distribution and abundance of invasive terrestrial plants and animals

Invasive plants and animals continue to have a significant impact on native species and ecosystem health, and also represent a significant management burden. In areas where invasive species are controlled, outcomes clearly demonstrate the value of well-resourced and ongoing invasive species management to control established populations and to eradicate new outbreaks where possible.

W1: Aquatic ecosystem health

Aquatic ecosystem health is variable across the ACT and strongly influenced by land use. Aquatic health is mostly good in conservation areas, but condition is poorer in urban and rural areas. The impact of land use is particularly evident for assessments of macroinvertebrate and riparian condition. Dry conditions in the region are also having an impact on aquatic health. Alien fish populations are high for the Murrumbidgee River with native fish accounting for less than 30% of fish abundance and 20% of biomass.

W2: River flows

All river flows were well below the long-term average in 2017 and 2018. A continuation of these conditions will have consequences for the ecosystem health and amenity of rivers in the ACT. All discharges downstream of storage reservoirs met the environmental flow requirement; this took place despite the significantly reduced rainfall and river flows in 2017 and 2018.

W3: Water quality

Water quality was generally good for the reporting period, including for sites in urban and rural areas. Water quality results may reflect the decreased rainfall for most of the reporting period. However, turbidity remains an issue following high rainfall events. Water quality in the Murrumbidgee River is comparable upstream and downstream of the ACT indicating minimal water quality impacts in the region.

W4: Recreational water quality

Recreation water quality is poor in the ACT for both lakes and rivers. Nearly every monitored recreation site experienced closures due to the exceedance of enterococci guidelines, and blue-green algae has required extended closures in Canberra’s lakes. Lake Tuggeranong was closed for most of the 2018–19 recreational swim season due to poor recreational water quality.

F1: Area burnt in prescribed burns and bushfires

Since 2003, there have been no large bushfires in the ACT. The area of prescribed burns far exceeds that of bushfires, accounting for 94% of the total hectares burnt between 2004 to April 2019, and 96% between 2015 to 2019. Prescribed burns are dominated by fuel reduction activities, with ecological and cultural burns responsible for only 2% of all burning activity between 2015 and April 2019. However, there is a growing recognition of the importance of fire for vegetation, biodiversity and cultural management in the ACT. Arson remains an issue for fire occurrence in the ACT, responsible for 45% of ignitions between 2004 and April 2019, compared to 16% for lightning and 10% for accidents.

F2: Fire risk

Between 2014–15 and 2018–19, climate conditions led to an increase in the average and maximum Fire Danger Index (FDI). There was also an increase in the number of days with a very high Fire Danger Rating (FDR) from 11 days in 2014– 15 to 44 in 2018–2019. The 2018–19 fire season had the highest fire danger, with the greatest number of very high and high FDR days, and the highest maximum FDI. Climate change is expected to increase both average and severe FDI in the future.